WHAT IS IRAN DOING AND WHY?

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Source: Roger Froikin, February 23, 2024

IN THE 1970’s, when the theory came around that oil supply was finite, more so in some places than others, the Shah of Iran became a program of nuclear energy capability financed by oil sales, so when the oil was finished, Iran would the ability to be a great power by other means.

Then came the Islamic Republic and the Ayatollahs, and that plan changed. Where the Pahlavi family saw a future of a great Iran with a high standard of living, the Ayatollahs wanted an Iran that was a worldwide leader and center of Islam, that represented Shi’i triumphalism, and to that end, Iran had to be a great technology and military nation and needed to develop the means of accomplishing those goals.

The idea was, and is, that if Iran can degrade and destroy Israel, it would be the hero of Islam and the leader of Islam by such an accomplishment, capitalizing on the demonization of Israel that had become endemic in Muslim societies, and claiming that Iran, the Shi’i state, had accomplished something the Sunni world failed to do.

But the nature of Islam being expansionistic, and the myths of Islam, seeing themselves as victims of the Christian West, justice to them demanded the defeat of the Christian West as a matter of justice, and that, after Israel, had to be the goal for Iran to be the leader.

So, to that end…..

Iran established a 4 pronged approach.

  1. They would use Shi’i populations in the region as surrogates, destabilizing nations, and
    controlling resources. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Lebanon. Terrorism against Israel would be financed, and not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia as the chief competitor in defining Islamic standards in the region.
  2. They would develop nuclear weapons capability and delivery means (rockets) or ally
    with those who could provide systems. That meant getting Russian and Chinese weapons systems (anti-missile and anti-aircraft) North Korean Rockets, and even European and American technology from China or Iranians studying in the USA and Europe.
  3. Neutralize the Americans as a threat and entice Europe with economic opportunity.
  4. Eventually using a nuclear threat, based on nuclear weapons and ICBMs based on sold fuel rockets that can be prepared and launched without lead-in time, to neutralize the US and to destroy Israel, thus making Iran the Islamic leader while still having Europeans rush to do business with Iran.

So, that is the plan. Use Houthi forces against shipping and eventually against the Saudis,
Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, and eventually the Fatah forces (Palestine Authority)
increasing terrorism against Israel, all economically and psychologically degraded Israel
and the Saudis, while preventing USA interference first by using European business to
dissuade the US from acting against Iran (promising the Europeans business
opportunities) and later preventing US Interference by threatening the possibility of
nuclear-armed missiles hitting American cities (even one would be enough).

Ultimate Goal: Degrading Israel to the point where the Jews leave and degrading the Saudis to the point where they lose their influence in Islam, neutralizing the USA as a center of influence in the world, and establishing alliances in Europe to develop business in Iran in exchange for promises to not inflame Muslim Violence in Europe for a while.

If this does not work or does not work fast enough, Iran may resort to the nuclear option. Attacking Israel with a nuclear weapon with the prevailing winds taking radioactive  consequences over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates would not bother the Ayatollahs all that much.